Stilon Gorzów 1–2 Lechia Zielona Góra

Stilon Gorzów

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lechia Zielona Góra

3/1/2025

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stilon Gorzów35%

×Draw25%

Lechia Zielona Góra40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stilon GorzówExpected goals in this matchLechia Zielona Góra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.50

Stilon Gorzów

1.39

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 103 away

1.37

creates per match

1.50

1.51

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Stilon Gorzów

1.37

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.50

allows per match

Stilon Gorzów

1.51

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stilon Gorzów ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stilon Gorzów or draw

60%

Stilon Gorzów or Lechia Zielona Góra

75%

Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra

65%

Winning margin

Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+

16%

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals

75%

Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals

40%

Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals

16%

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals

78%

Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals

44%

Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)

47%

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stilon Gorzów at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.37 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stilon Gorzów scores more

35%

level

25%

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more

40%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff