Stevenage 1–0 Wrexham: Result & Stats | League One

Stevenage

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wrexham

L. Thompson 10'

10/1/2024

League One · Round 9Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Stevenage35%

×Draw31%

Wrexham34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.99

Stevenage

1.02

Wrexham

0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 23 away

1.21

creates per match

1.13

0.86

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Stevenage

1.21

Wrexham

1.13

allows per match

Stevenage

0.86

Wrexham

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

66%

Stevenage or Wrexham

69%

Draw or Wrexham

65%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

14%

Wrexham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

64%

Stevenage 2+ goals

27%

Stevenage 3+ goals

8%

Wrexham 1+ goals

63%

Wrexham 2+ goals

26%

Wrexham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

51%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.86 · 76 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.21 + Wrexham defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Wrexham attack 1.13 + Stevenage defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Stevenage scores more

35%

level

31%

Wrexham scores more

34%

Stevenage at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

E. O'Connell

Wrexham · D

7.9

Match Events

10'

27'

39'

45+3'

60'

D. Kemp← J. Young

65'

E. Lee← J. McClean

66'

P. Mullin← T. OConnor

66'

O. Palmer← S. Fletcher

68'

Andy Cannon

74'

T. Simpson← J. Reid

75'

H. White← E. King

84'

J. Mendy← S. Revan

88'

Jordan Roberts

90+4'

Eoghan O'Connell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageWrexham

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots7

2Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots7

3On Target1

2Off Target4

3Blocked2

4Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

40%Possession60%

312Total Passes456

189Accurate Passes320

61%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1