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Stevenage vs Luton — League One 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
Preview
19:00
Luton
Luton
9/10/2026League OneLeague One · Round 6Lamex Stadium
38%
Stevenage
model favours
38%25%37%

Luton win just 37% against the top half (vs 68% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stevenage38%
×Draw25%
Luton37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.41
Luton
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.13
Luton
1.87

allows per match

Stevenage
0.90
Luton
1.69

finishing

Stevenage-0.13scores less
Luton-0.09on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
63%
Stevenage or Luton
75%
Draw or Luton
62%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
18%
Luton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
76%
Stevenage 2+ goals
41%
Stevenage 3+ goals
17%
Luton 1+ goals
75%
Luton 2+ goals
40%
Luton 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
51%
Luton (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 6 matches

Luton away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.69 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.13 + Luton defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.41

Luton attack 1.87 + Stevenage defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stevenage scores more
38%
level
25%
Luton scores more
37%

Stevenage at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Stevenage play Direct / counter-attacking, Luton Attack-heavy
  • Luton fall short of their xG (1.5 vs 1.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stevenage
Direct / counter-attacking
Luton
Attack-heavy
45%Possession55%
64%Pass accuracy76%
10.9Shots13.0
1.13xGBiggest gap1.77
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
StevenageLuton

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Stevenage
LDLLW
Luton
DWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stevenage vs Luton — Match Preview

Stevenage face Luton on September 10, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stevenage host Luton at Lamex Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.