Luton 2–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats | League One

Luton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

G. Kodua 64'

J. Clark 55'

L. Freestone 53'

1/10/2026

League One · Round 26Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Luton51%

×Draw24%

Stevenage25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.15

Luton

1.73

Stevenage

1.15

Luton creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.67

creates per match

1.13

1.18

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Luton

1.67

Stevenage

1.13

allows per match

Luton

1.18

Stevenage

1.79

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Luton+0.08on par

Stevenage-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Luton or draw

75%

Luton or Stevenage

76%

Draw or Stevenage

49%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

28%

Stevenage wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

82%

Luton 2+ goals

52%

Luton 3+ goals

25%

Stevenage 1+ goals

68%

Stevenage 2+ goals

32%

Stevenage 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

67%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.18 · 8 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.79 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.67 + Stevenage defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stevenage attack 1.13 + Luton defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Luton scores more

51%

level

24%

Stevenage scores more

25%

Luton at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Marschall

Stevenage · G

8.2

Match Events

22'

46'

53'

55'

62'

C. Bramall← E. Lawrence

64'

G. Kodua↳ N. Wells

69'

Jordan Roberts

70'

J. Houghton← D. Phillips

70'

C. Campbell← P. Patterson

70'

L. Thompson← H. White

77'

84'

90'

90+3'

90+1'

D. Sweeney← J. Roberts

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonStevenage

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots15

1.78Expected Goals (xG)1.74

3Corners7

8Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots15

7On Target3

0Off Target7

8Blocked5

7Inside Box11

8Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

424Total Passes309

311Accurate Passes182

73%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Luton vs Stevenage

Luton beat Stevenage 2-1 in League One on January 10, 2026.

Goals: L. Freestone (53'), J. Clark (55'), G. Kodua (64').

Luton controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton.

Luton vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Luton vs Stevenage