Stevenage 1–2 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Stevenage

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Huddersfield

B. Hanlan 11'

N. Lonwijk 24'

C. Marshall 3'

3/1/2025

League One · Round 34Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Stevenage35%

×Draw27%

Huddersfield38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.30

Stevenage

1.22

Huddersfield

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.28

creates per match

1.82

0.78

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Stevenage

1.28

Huddersfield

1.82

allows per match

Stevenage

0.78

Huddersfield

1.16

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Stevenage-0.28scores less

Huddersfield+0.01on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

62%

Stevenage or Huddersfield

73%

Draw or Huddersfield

65%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

15%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

70%

Stevenage 2+ goals

34%

Stevenage 3+ goals

12%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

73%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

37%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

47%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 7 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.28 + Huddersfield defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.22

Huddersfield attack 1.82 + Stevenage defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stevenage scores more

35%

level

27%

Huddersfield scores more

38%

Huddersfield at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

C. Piergianni

Stevenage · D

7.9

Match Events

3'

C. Marshall↳ R. Roosken

11'

24'

33'

59'

60'

60'

D. Butler← K. Edwards

66'

Nigel Cello Lonwijk

71'

Jonathan Hogg

73'

L. Sørensen← R. Roosken

73'

J. Taylor← J. Koroma

82'

D. Phillips← L. Thompson

82'

E. King← H. White

82'

B. Wiles← A. Evans

84'

J. Young← B. Hanlan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageHuddersfield

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots8

3Corners5

6Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots8

6On Target5

5Off Target2

2Blocked1

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

414Total Passes426

277Accurate Passes298

67%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

League One: Stevenage 1–2 Huddersfield

Huddersfield beat Stevenage 2-1 in League One on March 1, 2025.

Goals: C. Marshall (3'), B. Hanlan (11'), N. Lonwijk (24').

Huddersfield controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.

Stevenage vs Huddersfield — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Stevenage 1–2 Huddersfield