Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stevenage vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gillingham
Gillingham
C. Piergianni 23'
1/2/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 25The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage45%
×Draw28%
Gillingham27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.33
Gillingham
0.97

Stevenage creates 37% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 101 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Gillingham
0.90

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Gillingham
1.35

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
73%
Stevenage or Gillingham
72%
Draw or Gillingham
55%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
21%
Gillingham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
74%
Stevenage 2+ goals
38%
Stevenage 3+ goals
15%
Gillingham 1+ goals
62%
Gillingham 2+ goals
25%
Gillingham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
62%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Gillingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gillingham attack 0.90 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stevenage scores more
45%
level
28%
Gillingham scores more
27%

Stevenage at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
C. PiergianniStevenageStevenage · D
8.3

Match Events

23'
C. Piergianni↳ J. Reeves
34'
Dan Sweeney
37'
Will Wright
56'
M. Bostwick← T. Vancooten
64'
Alex Gilbey
70'
C. Harriott← S. OKeefe
70'
H. Adelakun← S. Kashket
72'
J. Reid← L. Norris
88'
Danny Rose
90+6'
J. Taylor← J. Roberts

Possession

52%Stevenage

Shots

10Stevenage

Pass accuracy

54%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageGillingham
Overview
52%Possession48%
10Total Shots6
2Corners2
11Fouls20
Shots
10Total Shots6
3On Target2
6Off Target3
1Blocked1
5Inside Box2
5Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
298Total Passes262
157Accurate Passes119
53%Pass Accuracy45%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls20
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Gillingham

Stevenage beat Gillingham 1-0 in League Two on January 2, 2023.

Goals: C. Piergianni (23').

Stevenage controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.