Stevenage 0–0 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Stevenage

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fleetwood Town

3/9/2024

League One · Round 37The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Stevenage43%

×Draw28%

Fleetwood Town29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.01

Stevenage

1.30

Fleetwood Town

1.01

Stevenage creates 29% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 134 away

1.17

creates per match

1.18

0.84

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Stevenage

1.17

Fleetwood Town

1.18

allows per match

Stevenage

0.84

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

71%

Stevenage or Fleetwood Town

72%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

57%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

20%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

73%

Stevenage 2+ goals

37%

Stevenage 3+ goals

14%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

64%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

27%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

60%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.17 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Stevenage defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stevenage scores more

43%

level

28%

Fleetwood Town scores more

29%

Stevenage at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff