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Stevenage vs Exeter City — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Exeter City
Exeter City
E. List 59', 23'
M. Jay 49'
S. Nombe 10'
10/9/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 11The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage39%
×Draw27%
Exeter City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.31
Exeter City
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 97 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Exeter City
1.35

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Exeter City
1.32

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
66%
Stevenage or Exeter City
73%
Draw or Exeter City
61%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
18%
Exeter City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
73%
Stevenage 2+ goals
38%
Stevenage 3+ goals
14%
Exeter City 1+ goals
70%
Exeter City 2+ goals
34%
Exeter City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
54%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stevenage scores more
39%
level
27%
Exeter City scores more
34%

Stevenage at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
E. ListStevenageStevenage · F
8.0

Match Events

10'
S. Nombe↳ G. Ray
23'
E. List↳ Bruno Andrade
29'
Pierce Sweeney
44'
Alex Hartridge
47'
George Ray
49'
M. Jay↳ J. Key
57'
Jake Taylor
59'
E. List↳ J. Reeves
66'
Scott Cuthbert
67'
O. Edwards← G. Ray
72'
L. Norris← J. Reid
79'
N. Atangana← T. Dieng
84'
Nigel Atangana
84'
M. Melbourne← E. Osborne
88'
J. Coley← J. Brown

Possession

48%Stevenage

Shots

12Stevenage

Pass accuracy

49%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageExeter
Overview
48%Possession52%
12Total Shots14
1Corners4
7Fouls19
Shots
12Total Shots14
3On Target7
6Off Target5
3Blocked2
8Inside Box11
4Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
371Total Passes399
250Accurate Passes284
67%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls19
2Yellow Cards4
3Offsides5

League Two: Stevenage 2–2 Exeter City

Stevenage and Exeter City drew 2-2 in League Two on October 9, 2021.

Goals: S. Nombe (10'), E. List (23', 59'), M. Jay (49').

Exeter City controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.