Exeter City 1–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stevenage

R. Cole 38'

4/6/2024

League One · Round 43St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Exeter City40%

×Draw28%

Stevenage32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.07

Exeter City

1.23

Stevenage

1.07

Exeter City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 70 away

1.23

creates per match

0.94

1.21

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Exeter City

1.23

Stevenage

0.94

allows per match

Exeter City

1.21

Stevenage

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

68%

Exeter City or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

60%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

17%

Stevenage wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

71%

Exeter City 2+ goals

35%

Exeter City 3+ goals

13%

Stevenage 1+ goals

66%

Stevenage 2+ goals

29%

Stevenage 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

55%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 92 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.23 + Stevenage defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Stevenage attack 0.94 + Exeter City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Exeter City scores more

40%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

32%

Exeter City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

W. Aimson

Exeter City · D

7.9

Match Events

7'

Dan Butler

20'

N. Thompson← L. James-Wildin

22'

Tom Carroll

38'

R. Cole↳ S. Cox

44'

J. Aitchison← S. Cox

47'

Louis Thompson

51'

N. Freeman← A. MacDonald

55'

N. Guinness-Walker← J. Roberts

55'

K. Hemmings← V. Oliver

56'

B. Thompson← L. Thompson

59'

I. Niskanen← V. Harper

60'

69'

69'

75'

75'

86'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterStevenage

Overview

59%Possession41%

8Total Shots12

2Corners7

14Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots12

4On Target3

3Off Target3

1Blocked6

4Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

508Total Passes327

405Accurate Passes204

80%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1