Stevenage 3–1 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Stevenage

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Crawley Town

C. Piergianni 83', 40'

J. Roberts 10'

D. Telford 89' (pen)

12/30/2022

League Two · Round 24The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage46%

×Draw26%

Crawley Town28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.10

Stevenage

1.47

Crawley Town

1.10

Stevenage creates 34% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 151 away

1.31

creates per match

1.17

1.04

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Stevenage

1.31

Crawley Town

1.17

allows per match

Stevenage

1.04

Crawley Town

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

72%

Stevenage or Crawley Town

74%

Draw or Crawley Town

54%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

22%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

77%

Stevenage 2+ goals

43%

Stevenage 3+ goals

18%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

67%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

30%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

62%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Crawley Town defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Crawley Town attack 1.17 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stevenage scores more

46%

level

26%

Crawley Town scores more

28%

Stevenage at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

C. Piergianni

Stevenage · D

9.2

Match Events

10'

J. Roberts↳ J. Reeves

40'

C. Piergianni↳ L. James-Wildin

46'

J. Powell← B. Wells

67'

A. Oteh← C. Chukwuemeka

75'

J. Reid← D. Rose

75'

J. Taylor← J. Roberts

75'

M. Ogungbo← T. Johnson

75'

J. Davis← B. Mason

83'

K. Salah-Edine← J. Balagizi

83'

C. Piergianni↳ J. Reeves

85'

Alex Gilbey

89'

D. TelfordPenalty

90+4'

D. Amoo← L. Norris

90+4'

M. Clark← A. Gilbey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageCrawley

Overview

44%Possession56%

24Total Shots8

7Corners5

9Fouls9

Shots

24Total Shots8

7On Target2

10Off Target3

7Blocked3

17Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

302Total Passes397

210Accurate Passes293

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0