Stevenage 0–0 Colchester: Result & Stats

Stevenage

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colchester

1/4/2020

League Two · Round 26The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage44%

×Draw28%

Colchester28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.00

Stevenage

1.32

Colchester

1.00

Stevenage creates 32% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 159 away

1.31

creates per match

0.96

1.04

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Stevenage

1.31

Colchester

0.96

allows per match

Stevenage

1.04

Colchester

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

72%

Stevenage or Colchester

72%

Draw or Colchester

56%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

20%

Colchester wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

73%

Stevenage 2+ goals

38%

Stevenage 3+ goals

15%

Colchester 1+ goals

63%

Colchester 2+ goals

26%

Colchester 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

61%

Colchester (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Colchester attack 0.96 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stevenage scores more

44%

level

28%

Colchester scores more

28%

Stevenage at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Farman

Stevenage · G

9.9

Match Events

13'

19'

34'

40'

46'

M. Timlin← D. Parrett

57'

T. Denton← K. Watts

64'

K. Poku← L. Gambin

70'

T. Robinson← L. Norris

80'

A. Revell← C. Mackail-Smith

85'

J. Ogedi-Uzokwe← C. Harriott

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageColchester

Overview

31%Possession69%

3Total Shots24

1Corners6

9Fouls12

Shots

3Total Shots24

1On Target10

2Off Target12

0Blocked2

0Inside Box15

3Outside Box9

Passing

31%Possession69%

261Total Passes544

171Accurate Passes454

66%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

10Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2