Colchester 0–2 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stevenage

L. Norris 49'

J. Reid 45+5'

4/9/2022

League Two · Round 41JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Colchester44%

×Draw28%

Stevenage28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.95

Colchester

1.28

Stevenage

0.95

Colchester creates 35% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 100 away

1.32

creates per match

0.80

1.10

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Colchester

1.32

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Colchester

1.10

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

72%

Colchester or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

56%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

20%

Stevenage wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

72%

Colchester 2+ goals

37%

Colchester 3+ goals

14%

Stevenage 1+ goals

61%

Stevenage 2+ goals

25%

Stevenage 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

61%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Colchester scores more

44%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

28%

Colchester at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Pym

Stevenage · G

7.9

Match Events

30'

Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu

45+5'

49'

50'

51'

53'

57'

64'

70'

Bruno Andrade← E. List

77'

79'

84'

84'

85'

90+3'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterStevenage

Overview

60%Possession40%

18Total Shots13

7Corners8

14Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots13

5On Target6

10Off Target1

3Blocked6

9Inside Box10

9Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

418Total Passes265

299Accurate Passes163

72%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls14

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Colchester vs Stevenage

Stevenage beat Colchester 2-0 in League Two on April 9, 2022.

Goals: J. Reid (45+5'), L. Norris (49').

Colchester controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.

Colchester vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Colchester vs Stevenage