Stevenage 0–1 Cardiff: Result & Stats | League One

Stevenage

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cardiff

C. Robinson 85'

12/9/2025

League One · Round 19Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Stevenage36%

×Draw28%

Cardiff36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.16

Stevenage

1.15

Cardiff

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

1.13

creates per match

1.74

0.58

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Stevenage

1.13

Cardiff

1.74

allows per match

Stevenage

0.58

Cardiff

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

64%

Stevenage or Cardiff

72%

Draw or Cardiff

64%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

15%

Cardiff wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

68%

Stevenage 2+ goals

32%

Stevenage 3+ goals

11%

Cardiff 1+ goals

69%

Cardiff 2+ goals

32%

Cardiff 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

50%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.58 · 24 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.13 + Cardiff defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cardiff attack 1.74 + Stevenage defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Stevenage scores more

36%

level

28%

Cardiff scores more

36%

Stevenage at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

C. Robinson

Cardiff · F

7.7

Match Events

40'

Carl Piergianni

45'

Charlie Goode

59'

D. Phillips← L. Thompson

61'

O. Kellyman← J. Colwill

74'

C. Campbell← B. Lubala

75'

Daniel Phillips

75'

P. Patterson← S. Earley

76'

Ryan Doherty

80'

C. Robinson← C. Ashford

81'

D. Turnbull← A. Robertson

81'

I. Davies← C. Willock

82'

Calum Chambers

85'

C. Robinson

87'

J. Malcolm← R. Doherty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageCardiff

Overview

34%Possession66%

2Total Shots11

4Corners6

18Fouls12

Shots

2Total Shots11

0On Target2

1Off Target6

1Blocked3

2Inside Box5

0Outside Box6

Passing

34%Possession66%

229Total Passes465

113Accurate Passes379

49%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2