Stevenage 1–1 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Stevenage

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cambridge United

J. Cowley 9'

S. Smith 83'

9/28/2019

League Two · Round 11The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stevenage37%

×Draw28%

Cambridge United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.13

Stevenage

1.19

Cambridge United

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 68 away

1.31

creates per match

1.22

1.04

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Stevenage

1.31

Cambridge United

1.22

allows per match

Stevenage

1.04

Cambridge United

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

66%

Stevenage or Cambridge United

72%

Draw or Cambridge United

63%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

16%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

70%

Stevenage 2+ goals

33%

Stevenage 3+ goals

12%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

68%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

31%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

52%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Cambridge United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cambridge United attack 1.22 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stevenage scores more

37%

level

28%

Cambridge United scores more

34%

Stevenage at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Maris

Cambridge United · M

7.8

Match Events

9'

J. Cowley↳ E. List

21'

Michael Timlin

31'

A. Iontton← L. Wildin

48'

Jack Roles

63'

R. Lambe← G. Taylor

63'

P. Lewis← J. Roles

66'

K. Watts← E. List

68'

Paul Farman

75'

B. Kennedy← C. Stokes

78'

H. Dunk← L. ONeil

83'

S. Smith↳ H. Dunk

89'

Paul Lewis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageCambridge

Overview

44%Possession56%

20Total Shots23

5Corners10

12Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots23

4On Target6

5Off Target9

11Blocked8

11Inside Box14

9Outside Box9

Passing

44%Possession56%

292Total Passes340

166Accurate Passes217

57%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3