Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cambridge United vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Stevenage
Stevenage
8/15/2023League OneLeague One · Round 3Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Cambridge United38%
×Draw29%
Stevenage34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.16
Stevenage
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 70 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.08
Stevenage
0.94

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.22
Stevenage
1.23

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
66%
Cambridge United or Stevenage
71%
Draw or Stevenage
62%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
16%
Stevenage wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
69%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
32%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
11%
Stevenage 1+ goals
66%
Stevenage 2+ goals
29%
Stevenage 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
53%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Stevenage defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Stevenage attack 0.94 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cambridge United scores more
38%
level
29%
Stevenage scores more
34%

Cambridge United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Stevenage

Stevenage beat Cambridge United 2-1 in League One on August 15, 2023.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.