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Stevenage vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
Preview
15:00
Blackpool
Blackpool
11/28/2026League OneLeague One · Round 17Lamex Stadium
Big match
48%
Stevenage
model favours
48%27%24%
1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stevenage48%
×Draw27%
Blackpool24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.40
Blackpool
0.91

Stevenage creates 54% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.13
Blackpool
0.91

allows per match

Stevenage
0.90
Blackpool
1.68

finishing

Stevenage-0.13scores less
Blackpool+0.22scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
76%
Stevenage or Blackpool
73%
Draw or Blackpool
52%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
23%
Blackpool wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
75%
Stevenage 2+ goals
41%
Stevenage 3+ goals
17%
Blackpool 1+ goals
60%
Blackpool 2+ goals
23%
Blackpool 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
66%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 6 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.68 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.13 + Blackpool defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Blackpool attack 0.91 + Stevenage defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stevenage scores more
48%
level
27%
Blackpool scores more
24%

Stevenage at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stevenage
Defensively solid
Blackpool
Balanced
45%Possession47%
64%Pass accuracyBiggest gap71%
10.9Shots10.8
1.08xG1.20
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
StevenageBlackpool

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Stevenage
1
Draws
2
Blackpool
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 33%
1–03–21–30–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Stevenage
LDLLW
Blackpool
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stevenage host Blackpool

November 28, 2026: Stevenage take on Blackpool in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stevenage host Blackpool at Lamex Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.