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Blackpool vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
12/21/2024League OneLeague One · Round 21Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Blackpool45%
×Draw27%
Stevenage28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.37
Stevenage
1.02

Blackpool creates 34% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 70 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.51
Stevenage
0.94

allows per match

Blackpool
1.10
Stevenage
1.23

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
72%
Blackpool or Stevenage
73%
Draw or Stevenage
55%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
21%
Stevenage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
75%
Blackpool 2+ goals
40%
Blackpool 3+ goals
16%
Stevenage 1+ goals
64%
Stevenage 2+ goals
27%
Stevenage 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
62%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.51 + Stevenage defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.37

Stevenage attack 0.94 + Blackpool defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blackpool scores more
45%
level
27%
Stevenage scores more
28%

Blackpool at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blackpool vs Stevenage

Blackpool and Stevenage drew 0-0 in League One on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.