Steve Biko 1–0 Wallidan: Result & Stats

Steve Biko

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wallidan

5/11/2023

GFA League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Steve Biko32%

×Draw36%

Wallidan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Steve BikoExpected goals in this matchWallidan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

0.80

Steve Biko

0.78

Wallidan

0.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 58 away

0.86

creates per match

0.84

0.76

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Steve Biko

0.86

Wallidan

0.84

allows per match

Steve Biko

0.76

Wallidan

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Steve Biko+0.00on par

Wallidan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Steve Biko ↓

Wallidan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Steve Biko or draw

67%

Steve Biko or Wallidan

64%

Draw or Wallidan

68%

Winning margin

Steve Biko wins by 2+

10%

Wallidan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Steve Biko 1+ goals

54%

Steve Biko 2+ goals

18%

Steve Biko 3+ goals

4%

Wallidan 1+ goals

55%

Wallidan 2+ goals

19%

Wallidan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Steve Biko (draw refunded)

49%

Wallidan (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Steve Biko at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.76 · 76 matches

Wallidan away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.71 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Steve Biko attack 0.86 + Wallidan defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Wallidan attack 0.84 + Steve Biko defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Steve Biko scores more

32%

level

36%

Wallidan scores more

33%

Wallidan at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Wallidan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff