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Steve Biko vs Waa Banjul Football — GFA League 2020

Steve Biko
Steve Biko
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Waa Banjul Football
Waa Banjul Football
3/30/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Steve Biko37%
×Draw36%
Waa Banjul Football27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Steve Biko
0.84
Waa Banjul Football
0.68

Steve Biko creates 24% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 58 away

creates per match

Steve Biko
0.86
Waa Banjul Football
0.59

allows per match

Steve Biko
0.76
Waa Banjul Football
0.83

finishing

Steve Biko+0.00on par
Waa Banjul Football+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Steve Biko ↓

Waa Banjul Football →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–115%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Steve Biko or draw
73%
Steve Biko or Waa Banjul Football
64%
Draw or Waa Banjul Football
63%

Winning margin

Steve Biko wins by 2+
12%
Waa Banjul Football wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Steve Biko 1+ goals
57%
Steve Biko 2+ goals
21%
Steve Biko 3+ goals
5%
Waa Banjul Football 1+ goals
49%
Waa Banjul Football 2+ goals
15%
Waa Banjul Football 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Steve Biko (draw refunded)
57%
Waa Banjul Football (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Steve Biko at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.76 · 76 matches

Waa Banjul Football away — creates 0.59, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Steve Biko attack 0.86 + Waa Banjul Football defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Waa Banjul Football attack 0.59 + Steve Biko defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Steve Biko scores more
37%
level
36%
Waa Banjul Football scores more
27%

Steve Biko at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Steve Biko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Steve Biko vs Waa Banjul Football

Steve Biko and Waa Banjul Football drew 1-1 in GFA League on March 30, 2023.