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Steve Biko vs TMT — GFA League 2020

Steve Biko
Steve Biko
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TMT
TMT
12/7/2024GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Steve Biko36%
×Draw35%
TMT28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Steve Biko
0.86
TMT
0.72

Steve Biko creates 19% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 45 away

creates per match

Steve Biko
0.86
TMT
0.67

allows per match

Steve Biko
0.76
TMT
0.87

finishing

Steve Biko+0.00on par
TMT+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Steve Biko ↓

TMT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–115%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Steve Biko or draw
72%
Steve Biko or TMT
65%
Draw or TMT
64%

Winning margin

Steve Biko wins by 2+
12%
TMT wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Steve Biko 1+ goals
58%
Steve Biko 2+ goals
21%
Steve Biko 3+ goals
6%
TMT 1+ goals
51%
TMT 2+ goals
16%
TMT 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Steve Biko (draw refunded)
56%
TMT (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Steve Biko at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.76 · 76 matches

TMT away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Steve Biko attack 0.86 + TMT defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

TMT attack 0.67 + Steve Biko defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Steve Biko scores more
36%
level
35%
TMT scores more
28%

Steve Biko at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Steve Biko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Steve Biko vs TMT

Steve Biko and TMT drew 0-0 in GFA League on December 7, 2024.