Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Steve Biko vs Real de Banjul — GFA League 2020

Steve Biko
Steve Biko
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real de Banjul
Real de Banjul
3/9/2024GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Steve Biko28%
×Draw34%
Real de Banjul38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Steve Biko
0.77
Real de Banjul
0.95

Real de Banjul creates 23% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 88 away

creates per match

Steve Biko
0.86
Real de Banjul
1.15

allows per match

Steve Biko
0.76
Real de Banjul
0.68

finishing

Steve Biko+0.00on par
Real de Banjul+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Steve Biko ↓

Real de Banjul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–117%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Steve Biko or draw
62%
Steve Biko or Real de Banjul
66%
Draw or Real de Banjul
72%

Winning margin

Steve Biko wins by 2+
9%
Real de Banjul wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Steve Biko 1+ goals
54%
Steve Biko 2+ goals
18%
Steve Biko 3+ goals
4%
Real de Banjul 1+ goals
61%
Real de Banjul 2+ goals
25%
Real de Banjul 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Steve Biko (draw refunded)
42%
Real de Banjul (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Steve Biko at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.76 · 76 matches

Real de Banjul away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.68 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Steve Biko attack 0.86 + Real de Banjul defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.77

Real de Banjul attack 1.15 + Steve Biko defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Steve Biko scores more
28%
level
34%
Real de Banjul scores more
38%

Real de Banjul at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real de Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Steve Biko vs Real de Banjul

Steve Biko and Real de Banjul drew 0-0 in GFA League on March 9, 2024.