Steve Biko 1–0 Hart Acedemy: Result & Stats

Steve Biko

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hart Acedemy

5/22/2025

GFA League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Steve Biko38%

×Draw31%

Hart Acedemy31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Steve BikoExpected goals in this matchHart Acedemy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.92

Steve Biko

1.04

Hart Acedemy

0.92

Steve Biko creates 13% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 30 away

0.86

creates per match

1.07

0.76

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Steve Biko

0.86

Hart Acedemy

1.07

allows per match

Steve Biko

0.76

Hart Acedemy

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Steve Biko+0.00on par

Hart Acedemy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Steve Biko ↓

Hart Acedemy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Steve Biko or draw

69%

Steve Biko or Hart Acedemy

69%

Draw or Hart Acedemy

62%

Winning margin

Steve Biko wins by 2+

15%

Hart Acedemy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Steve Biko 1+ goals

65%

Steve Biko 2+ goals

28%

Steve Biko 3+ goals

9%

Hart Acedemy 1+ goals

60%

Hart Acedemy 2+ goals

23%

Hart Acedemy 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Steve Biko (draw refunded)

55%

Hart Acedemy (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Steve Biko at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.76 · 76 matches

Hart Acedemy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Steve Biko attack 0.86 + Hart Acedemy defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Hart Acedemy attack 1.07 + Steve Biko defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Steve Biko scores more

38%

level

31%

Hart Acedemy scores more

31%

Steve Biko at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Steve Biko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff