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Steve Biko vs Falcons — GFA League 2020

Steve Biko
Steve Biko
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Falcons
Falcons
4/11/2025GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Steve Biko33%
×Draw32%
Falcons35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Steve Biko
0.92
Falcons
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 60 away

creates per match

Steve Biko
0.86
Falcons
1.15

allows per match

Steve Biko
0.76
Falcons
0.98

finishing

Steve Biko+0.00on par
Falcons+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Steve Biko ↓

Falcons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Steve Biko or draw
65%
Steve Biko or Falcons
68%
Draw or Falcons
67%

Winning margin

Steve Biko wins by 2+
12%
Falcons wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Steve Biko 1+ goals
60%
Steve Biko 2+ goals
23%
Steve Biko 3+ goals
7%
Falcons 1+ goals
61%
Falcons 2+ goals
25%
Falcons 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Steve Biko (draw refunded)
49%
Falcons (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Steve Biko at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.76 · 76 matches

Falcons away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.98 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Steve Biko attack 0.86 + Falcons defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Falcons attack 1.15 + Steve Biko defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Steve Biko scores more
33%
level
32%
Falcons scores more
35%

Falcons at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Falcons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Steve Biko 0–1 Falcons

Falcons beat Steve Biko 1-0 in GFA League on April 11, 2025.