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Steve Biko vs Dutch Lions — GFA League 2020

Steve Biko
Steve Biko
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dutch Lions
Dutch Lions
4/18/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Steve Biko42%
×Draw33%
Dutch Lions25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Steve Biko
1.04
Dutch Lions
0.73

Steve Biko creates 42% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 30 away

creates per match

Steve Biko
0.86
Dutch Lions
0.70

allows per match

Steve Biko
0.76
Dutch Lions
1.23

finishing

Steve Biko+0.00on par
Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Steve Biko ↓

Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Steve Biko or draw
75%
Steve Biko or Dutch Lions
67%
Draw or Dutch Lions
58%

Winning margin

Steve Biko wins by 2+
17%
Dutch Lions wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Steve Biko 1+ goals
65%
Steve Biko 2+ goals
28%
Steve Biko 3+ goals
9%
Dutch Lions 1+ goals
52%
Dutch Lions 2+ goals
17%
Dutch Lions 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Steve Biko (draw refunded)
63%
Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Steve Biko at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.76 · 76 matches

Dutch Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Steve Biko attack 0.86 + Dutch Lions defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Dutch Lions attack 0.70 + Steve Biko defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Steve Biko scores more
42%
level
33%
Dutch Lions scores more
25%

Steve Biko at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Steve Biko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Steve Biko 0–2 Dutch Lions

Dutch Lions beat Steve Biko 2-0 in GFA League on April 18, 2026.