Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Štětí vs Dobříš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Štětí
Štětí
PST
15:00
Dobříš
Dobříš
6/7/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 29Městský Stadion (Štětí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Štětí68%
×Draw17%
Dobříš15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Štětí
2.59
Dobříš
1.16

Štětí creates 123% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 24 away

creates per match

Štětí
1.77
Dobříš
0.96

allows per match

Štětí
1.36
Dobříš
3.42

finishing

Štětí+0.00on par
Dobříš+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Štětí ↓

Dobříš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Štětí or draw
85%
Štětí or Dobříš
83%
Draw or Dobříš
32%

Winning margin

Štětí wins by 2+
46%
Dobříš wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Štětí 1+ goals
92%
Štětí 2+ goals
73%
Štětí 3+ goals
47%
Dobříš 1+ goals
69%
Dobříš 2+ goals
32%
Dobříš 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Štětí (draw refunded)
82%
Dobříš (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Štětí at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.36 · 84 matches

Dobříš away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Štětí attack 1.77 + Dobříš defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.59

Dobříš attack 0.96 + Štětí defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Štětí scores more
68%
level
17%
Dobříš scores more
15%

Štětí at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Štětí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Štětí face Dobříš (4. liga - Divizie B)

4. liga - Divizie B returns with Štětí hosting Dobříš. Match starts June 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Štětí host Dobříš at Městský Stadion (Štětí).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.