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Dobříš vs Štětí — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Dobříš
Dobříš
CANC
11:30
Štětí
Štětí
5/1/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 14UMT Dobříš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dobříš45%
×Draw22%
Štětí33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobříš
1.94
Štětí
1.65

Dobříš creates 18% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 84 away

creates per match

Dobříš
1.63
Štětí
1.25

allows per match

Dobříš
2.04
Štětí
2.26

finishing

Dobříš+0.00on par
Štětí+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobříš ↓

Štětí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Dobříš or draw
67%
Dobříš or Štětí
78%
Draw or Štětí
55%

Winning margin

Dobříš wins by 2+
25%
Štětí wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dobříš 1+ goals
86%
Dobříš 2+ goals
58%
Dobříš 3+ goals
30%
Štětí 1+ goals
81%
Štětí 2+ goals
49%
Štětí 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dobříš (draw refunded)
57%
Štětí (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobříš at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Štětí away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.26 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobříš attack 1.63 + Štětí defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.94

Štětí attack 1.25 + Dobříš defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dobříš scores more
45%
level
22%
Štětí scores more
33%

Dobříš at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dobříš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dobříš vs Štětí — Match Preview

Dobříš face Štětí on May 1, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dobříš host Štětí at UMT Dobříš.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.