Šternberk 1–1 Skaštice: Result & Stats

Šternberk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Skaštice

3/29/2025

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 19Stadion Šternberk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Šternberk49%

×Draw22%

Skaštice29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠternberkExpected goals in this matchSkaštice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.40

Šternberk

1.89

Skaštice

1.40

Šternberk creates 35% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 80 away

1.79

creates per match

1.30

1.50

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Šternberk

1.79

Skaštice

1.30

allows per match

Šternberk

1.50

Skaštice

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šternberk+0.00on par

Skaštice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šternberk ↓

Skaštice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Šternberk or draw

71%

Šternberk or Skaštice

78%

Draw or Skaštice

51%

Winning margin

Šternberk wins by 2+

27%

Skaštice wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Šternberk 1+ goals

85%

Šternberk 2+ goals

56%

Šternberk 3+ goals

29%

Skaštice 1+ goals

75%

Skaštice 2+ goals

41%

Skaštice 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Šternberk (draw refunded)

63%

Skaštice (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šternberk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.50 · 56 matches

Skaštice away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.98 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šternberk attack 1.79 + Skaštice defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.89

Skaštice attack 1.30 + Šternberk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Šternberk scores more

49%

level

22%

Skaštice scores more

29%

Šternberk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Šternberk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff