Šternberk 2–0 Kostelec na Hané: Result & Stats

Šternberk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kostelec na Hané

9/16/2023

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 7Stadion Šternberk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Šternberk54%

×Draw22%

Kostelec na Hané24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠternberkExpected goals in this matchKostelec na Hané

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.22

Šternberk

1.96

Kostelec na Hané

1.22

Šternberk creates 61% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

1.79

creates per match

0.93

1.50

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Šternberk

1.79

Kostelec na Hané

0.93

allows per match

Šternberk

1.50

Kostelec na Hané

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šternberk+0.00on par

Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šternberk ↓

Kostelec na Hané →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Šternberk or draw

76%

Šternberk or Kostelec na Hané

78%

Draw or Kostelec na Hané

46%

Winning margin

Šternberk wins by 2+

32%

Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Šternberk 1+ goals

86%

Šternberk 2+ goals

58%

Šternberk 3+ goals

31%

Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals

70%

Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals

34%

Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Šternberk (draw refunded)

70%

Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šternberk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.50 · 56 matches

Kostelec na Hané away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šternberk attack 1.79 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kostelec na Hané attack 0.93 + Šternberk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Šternberk scores more

54%

level

22%

Kostelec na Hané scores more

24%

Šternberk at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Šternberk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff