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Stern vs Torgelower SV Greif — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Stern
Stern
CANC
12:00
Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
4/11/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 26Sportplatz Schildhornstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stern21%
×Draw22%
Torgelower SV Greif58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stern
1.11
Torgelower SV Greif
2.00

Torgelower SV Greif creates 80% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Stern
1.11
Torgelower SV Greif
1.89

allows per match

Stern
2.11
Torgelower SV Greif
1.11

finishing

Stern+0.00on par
Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stern ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Stern or draw
42%
Stern or Torgelower SV Greif
78%
Draw or Torgelower SV Greif
79%

Winning margin

Stern wins by 2+
8%
Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Stern 1+ goals
67%
Stern 2+ goals
30%
Stern 3+ goals
10%
Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
86%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
59%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Stern (draw refunded)
26%
Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stern at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stern attack 1.11 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + Stern defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stern scores more
21%
level
22%
Torgelower SV Greif scores more
58%

Torgelower SV Greif at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stern vs Torgelower SV Greif — Match Preview

Stern face Torgelower SV Greif on April 11, 2021 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stern host Torgelower SV Greif at Sportplatz Schildhornstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.