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Stern vs Staaken — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Stern
Stern
CANC
12:00
Staaken
Staaken
5/9/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 30Sportplatz Schildhornstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stern35%
×Draw23%
Staaken42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stern
1.56
Staaken
1.74

Staaken creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 66 away

creates per match

Stern
1.11
Staaken
1.38

allows per match

Stern
2.11
Staaken
2.02

finishing

Stern+0.00on par
Staaken+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stern ↓

Staaken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Stern or draw
58%
Stern or Staaken
77%
Draw or Staaken
65%

Winning margin

Stern wins by 2+
17%
Staaken wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Stern 1+ goals
79%
Stern 2+ goals
46%
Stern 3+ goals
21%
Staaken 1+ goals
82%
Staaken 2+ goals
52%
Staaken 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Stern (draw refunded)
45%
Staaken (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stern at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Staaken away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stern attack 1.11 + Staaken defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.56

Staaken attack 1.38 + Stern defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stern scores more
35%
level
23%
Staaken scores more
42%

Staaken at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Staaken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stern host Staaken

May 9, 2021: Stern take on Staaken in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stern host Staaken at Sportplatz Schildhornstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.