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Stern vs Hansa Rostock II — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Stern
Stern
CANC
12:00
Hansa Rostock II
Hansa Rostock II
4/25/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 28Sportplatz Schildhornstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stern23%
×Draw20%
Hansa Rostock II57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stern
1.37
Hansa Rostock II
2.25

Hansa Rostock II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 66 away

creates per match

Stern
1.11
Hansa Rostock II
2.39

allows per match

Stern
2.11
Hansa Rostock II
1.62

finishing

Stern+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stern ↓

Hansa Rostock II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Stern or draw
43%
Stern or Hansa Rostock II
80%
Draw or Hansa Rostock II
77%

Winning margin

Stern wins by 2+
10%
Hansa Rostock II wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Stern 1+ goals
75%
Stern 2+ goals
40%
Stern 3+ goals
16%
Hansa Rostock II 1+ goals
89%
Hansa Rostock II 2+ goals
65%
Hansa Rostock II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Stern (draw refunded)
29%
Hansa Rostock II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stern at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Hansa Rostock II away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stern attack 1.11 + Hansa Rostock II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hansa Rostock II attack 2.39 + Stern defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Stern scores more
23%
level
20%
Hansa Rostock II scores more
57%

Hansa Rostock II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hansa Rostock II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stern face Hansa Rostock II (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with Stern hosting Hansa Rostock II. Match starts April 25, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stern host Hansa Rostock II at Sportplatz Schildhornstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.