Sterkrade-Nord 4–1 SF Niederwenigern

Sterkrade-Nord

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SF Niederwenigern

3/23/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 21Sterkrade Nord Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sterkrade-Nord53%

×Draw21%

SF Niederwenigern27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sterkrade-NordExpected goals in this matchSF Niederwenigern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.53

Sterkrade-Nord

2.21

SF Niederwenigern

1.53

Sterkrade-Nord creates 44% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

2.04

creates per match

1.16

1.91

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Sterkrade-Nord

2.04

SF Niederwenigern

1.16

allows per match

Sterkrade-Nord

1.91

SF Niederwenigern

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sterkrade-Nord+0.00on par

SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sterkrade-Nord ↓

SF Niederwenigern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Sterkrade-Nord or draw

73%

Sterkrade-Nord or SF Niederwenigern

79%

Draw or SF Niederwenigern

47%

Winning margin

Sterkrade-Nord wins by 2+

32%

SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sterkrade-Nord 1+ goals

89%

Sterkrade-Nord 2+ goals

65%

Sterkrade-Nord 3+ goals

38%

SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals

78%

SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals

45%

SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sterkrade-Nord (draw refunded)

66%

SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sterkrade-Nord at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

SF Niederwenigern away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sterkrade-Nord attack 2.04 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.21

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.16 + Sterkrade-Nord defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sterkrade-Nord scores more

53%

level

21%

SF Niederwenigern scores more

27%

Sterkrade-Nord at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sterkrade-Nord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff