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Sterkrade-Nord vs Jahn Hiesfeld — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Sterkrade-Nord
Sterkrade-Nord
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
6/6/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - Relegation Round - 10Sterkrade Nord Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sterkrade-Nord50%
×Draw20%
Jahn Hiesfeld30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sterkrade-Nord
2.25
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.71

Sterkrade-Nord creates 32% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sterkrade-Nord
2.04
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.50

allows per match

Sterkrade-Nord
1.91
Jahn Hiesfeld
2.45

finishing

Sterkrade-Nord+0.00on par
Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sterkrade-Nord ↓

Jahn Hiesfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Sterkrade-Nord or draw
70%
Sterkrade-Nord or Jahn Hiesfeld
80%
Draw or Jahn Hiesfeld
50%

Winning margin

Sterkrade-Nord wins by 2+
30%
Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sterkrade-Nord 1+ goals
89%
Sterkrade-Nord 2+ goals
65%
Sterkrade-Nord 3+ goals
39%
Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
82%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
51%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sterkrade-Nord (draw refunded)
63%
Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sterkrade-Nord at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Jahn Hiesfeld away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sterkrade-Nord attack 2.04 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.25

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 1.50 + Sterkrade-Nord defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sterkrade-Nord scores more
50%
level
20%
Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
30%

Sterkrade-Nord at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sterkrade-Nord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Sterkrade-Nord 3–4 Jahn Hiesfeld

Jahn Hiesfeld beat Sterkrade-Nord 4-3 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on June 6, 2022.

The match was played at Sterkrade Nord Kunstrasenplatz in Oberhausen.