Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sterkrade-Nord vs Germania Ratingen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Sterkrade-Nord
Sterkrade-Nord
CANC
14:15
Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
11/8/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 13Sterkrade Nord Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sterkrade-Nord39%
×Draw22%
Germania Ratingen40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sterkrade-Nord
1.85
Germania Ratingen
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 91 away

creates per match

Sterkrade-Nord
2.04
Germania Ratingen
1.85

allows per match

Sterkrade-Nord
1.91
Germania Ratingen
1.67

finishing

Sterkrade-Nord+0.00on par
Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sterkrade-Nord ↓

Germania Ratingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Sterkrade-Nord or draw
60%
Sterkrade-Nord or Germania Ratingen
78%
Draw or Germania Ratingen
61%

Winning margin

Sterkrade-Nord wins by 2+
20%
Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sterkrade-Nord 1+ goals
84%
Sterkrade-Nord 2+ goals
55%
Sterkrade-Nord 3+ goals
28%
Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
85%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
56%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sterkrade-Nord (draw refunded)
49%
Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sterkrade-Nord at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Germania Ratingen away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.67 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sterkrade-Nord attack 2.04 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.85

Germania Ratingen attack 1.85 + Sterkrade-Nord defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sterkrade-Nord scores more
39%
level
22%
Germania Ratingen scores more
40%

Germania Ratingen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sterkrade-Nord vs Germania Ratingen — Match Preview

Sterkrade-Nord face Germania Ratingen on November 8, 2020 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sterkrade-Nord host Germania Ratingen at Sterkrade Nord Kunstrasenplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.