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Sterkrade-Nord vs FSV Duisburg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Sterkrade-Nord
Sterkrade-Nord
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
5/29/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - Relegation Round - 9Sterkrade Nord Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sterkrade-Nord58%
×Draw19%
FSV Duisburg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sterkrade-Nord
2.37
FSV Duisburg
1.42

Sterkrade-Nord creates 67% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sterkrade-Nord
2.04
FSV Duisburg
0.93

allows per match

Sterkrade-Nord
1.91
FSV Duisburg
2.69

finishing

Sterkrade-Nord+0.00on par
FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sterkrade-Nord ↓

FSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sterkrade-Nord or draw
78%
Sterkrade-Nord or FSV Duisburg
81%
Draw or FSV Duisburg
42%

Winning margin

Sterkrade-Nord wins by 2+
37%
FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sterkrade-Nord 1+ goals
91%
Sterkrade-Nord 2+ goals
68%
Sterkrade-Nord 3+ goals
42%
FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
76%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
41%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sterkrade-Nord (draw refunded)
72%
FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sterkrade-Nord at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sterkrade-Nord attack 2.04 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.37

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + Sterkrade-Nord defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sterkrade-Nord scores more
58%
level
19%
FSV Duisburg scores more
22%

Sterkrade-Nord at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sterkrade-Nord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Sterkrade-Nord 2–1 FSV Duisburg

Sterkrade-Nord beat FSV Duisburg 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Sterkrade Nord Kunstrasenplatz in Oberhausen.