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Sterkrade-Nord vs Cronenberger SC — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Sterkrade-Nord
Sterkrade-Nord
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
4/24/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - Relegation Round - 4Sterkrade Nord Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sterkrade-Nord54%
×Draw20%
Cronenberger SC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sterkrade-Nord
2.26
Cronenberger SC
1.52

Sterkrade-Nord creates 49% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sterkrade-Nord
2.04
Cronenberger SC
1.12

allows per match

Sterkrade-Nord
1.91
Cronenberger SC
2.48

finishing

Sterkrade-Nord+0.00on par
Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sterkrade-Nord ↓

Cronenberger SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sterkrade-Nord or draw
74%
Sterkrade-Nord or Cronenberger SC
80%
Draw or Cronenberger SC
46%

Winning margin

Sterkrade-Nord wins by 2+
33%
Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sterkrade-Nord 1+ goals
89%
Sterkrade-Nord 2+ goals
66%
Sterkrade-Nord 3+ goals
39%
Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
78%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
45%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sterkrade-Nord (draw refunded)
68%
Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sterkrade-Nord at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Cronenberger SC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.48 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sterkrade-Nord attack 2.04 + Cronenberger SC defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.26

Cronenberger SC attack 1.12 + Sterkrade-Nord defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sterkrade-Nord scores more
54%
level
20%
Cronenberger SC scores more
26%

Sterkrade-Nord at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sterkrade-Nord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sterkrade-Nord vs Cronenberger SC

Sterkrade-Nord beat Cronenberger SC 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sterkrade Nord Kunstrasenplatz in Oberhausen.