Stepojevac Vaga 1–2 Macva: Result & Stats

Stepojevac Vaga

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Macva

M. Jovic 31' (pen)

M. Gemovic 59'

S. Abdullahi 55'

10/24/2025

Prva Liga · Round 15Stadion FK Bežanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stepojevac Vaga38%

×Draw31%

Macva31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stepojevac VagaExpected goals in this matchMacva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.93

Stepojevac Vaga

1.06

Macva

0.93

Stepojevac Vaga creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 91 away

0.95

creates per match

0.75

1.11

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Stepojevac Vaga

0.95

Macva

0.75

allows per match

Stepojevac Vaga

1.11

Macva

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Macva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stepojevac Vaga ↓

Macva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Stepojevac Vaga or draw

69%

Stepojevac Vaga or Macva

69%

Draw or Macva

62%

Winning margin

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+

15%

Macva wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals

65%

Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals

29%

Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals

9%

Macva 1+ goals

61%

Macva 2+ goals

24%

Macva 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)

55%

Macva (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stepojevac Vaga at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Macva away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stepojevac Vaga attack 0.95 + Macva defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Macva attack 0.75 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stepojevac Vaga scores more

38%

level

31%

Macva scores more

31%

Stepojevac Vaga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stepojevac Vaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

S. Popovic

29'

D. Djordjic

29'

M. Gvozdenovic

31'

M. JovicPenalty

46'

I. Vucicevic← L. Konstantinov

54'

55'

56'

58'

59'

64'

66'

U. Kilibarda← S. Abdullahi

71'

M. Mijatovic← M. Jovic

71'

V. Maksimovic← S. Popovic

71'

V. Milosavljev← A. Vuletic

78'

M. Gemovic

78'

V. Rakic← D. Djordjic

79'

M. Bakic← M. Tshibuabua

84'

L. Nikolic← M. Ergelas

86'

L. Pavlovic

90+1'

K. Rakonic

90+3'

L. Nikolic

Stepojevac

Macva

12

Rakonic

4

Ilic

5

Terzic

7

⚽

▼

Abdullahi

10

▼

Ergelas

15

Sladojevi

30

▼

Djordjic

32

Dukic

33

⚽

55

70

12

2

3

▼

5

8

10

17

▼

Vuletic

22

Krstovic

23

⚽

▼

Jovic

29

▼

Popovic

30

▼

Tshibuabu

46'▲I. Vucicevic←▼L. Konstantinov

71'▲M. Mijatovic←▼M. Jovic

71'▲V. Maksimovic←▼S. Popovic

71'▲V. Milosavljev←▼A. Vuletic

79'▲M. Bakic←▼M. Tshibuabua

Stepojevac Vaga substitutes

1Vukmirovic9Mijatovic11Todorovic14Maksimovic15Vucicevic16Wypart20Milosavljev21Olawoyin26Hao27Bakic33Tomovic

Manager: N. Glušica

66'▲U. Kilibarda←▼S. Abdullahi

78'▲V. Rakic←▼D. Djordjic

84'▲L. Nikolic←▼M. Ergelas

Macva substitutes

88Savic98Nikolic2Jovanovic14Nikolic17Rakic19Ristivojevic20Radovanovic22Isakovski24Jovovic29Kilibarda80Denic