Stepojevac Vaga 0–0 Loznica: Result & Stats

Stepojevac Vaga

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Loznica

2/20/2026

Prva Liga · Round 24Stadion Bezanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stepojevac Vaga37%

×Draw31%

Loznica32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stepojevac VagaExpected goals in this matchLoznica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.95

Stepojevac Vaga

1.05

Loznica

0.95

Stepojevac Vaga creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 73 away

0.95

creates per match

0.78

1.11

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Stepojevac Vaga

0.95

Loznica

0.78

allows per match

Stepojevac Vaga

1.11

Loznica

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Loznica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stepojevac Vaga ↓

Loznica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Stepojevac Vaga or draw

68%

Stepojevac Vaga or Loznica

69%

Draw or Loznica

63%

Winning margin

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+

15%

Loznica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals

65%

Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals

28%

Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals

9%

Loznica 1+ goals

61%

Loznica 2+ goals

25%

Loznica 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)

54%

Loznica (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stepojevac Vaga at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Loznica away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stepojevac Vaga attack 0.95 + Loznica defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Loznica attack 0.78 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stepojevac Vaga scores more

37%

level

31%

Loznica scores more

32%

Stepojevac Vaga at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stepojevac Vaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

I. Vucicevic← T. Todorovic

28'

S. Purtic

33'

N. Motika

46'

V. Milosavljev← M. Bakic

56'

A. Mitic

59'

P. Onowakpo← A. Mitic

64'

M. Jelenic← L. Malis

65'

F. Obadovic← D. Susnjar

71'

N. Krstic← H. Aderoju

76'

M. Jelenic

83'

D. Djukovic← L. Krstovic

83'

A. Savic← O. Smith

84'

N. Krstic

Stepojevac

Loznica

1

Savic

4

Motika

6

Vujicic

7

▼

Malis

10

Starcevic

14

▼

Susnjar

15

▼

18

23

27

77

1

4

9

▼

Mitic

10

Arsic

11

▼

Todorovic

21

▼

Smith

22

▼

Krstovic

27

▼

29

33

35

Manager: Goran Dragoljic

18'▲I. Vucicevic←▼T. Todorovic

46'▲V. Milosavljev←▼M. Bakic

59'▲P. Onowakpo←▼A. Mitic

83'▲D. Djukovic←▼L. Krstovic

83'▲A. Savic←▼O. Smith

Stepojevac Vaga substitutes

12Terzic3Djukovic6Vukasinovic8Savic13Konyaev15Vucicevic20Milosavljev23Jovic32Onowakpo

Manager: Dejan Nikolic

64'▲M. Jelenic←▼L. Malis

65'▲F. Obadovic←▼D. Susnjar

71'▲N. Krstic←▼H. Aderoju

Loznica substitutes

43Antonic8Jovovic13Vukosavljevic16Ackah19Obadovic20Pecelj24Jelenic42Krstic70Stojanovic89Petrovic91Kremenovic