Stepojevac Vaga 1–1 Jedinstvo Ub: Result & Stats

Stepojevac Vaga

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jedinstvo Ub

Z. Arsic 33'

E. Hoard 63'

8/9/2025

Prva Liga · Round 2Stadion FK Bežanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stepojevac Vaga37%

×Draw29%

Jedinstvo Ub34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stepojevac VagaExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Ub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.08

Stepojevac Vaga

1.15

Jedinstvo Ub

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

0.95

creates per match

1.05

1.11

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Stepojevac Vaga

0.95

Jedinstvo Ub

1.05

allows per match

Stepojevac Vaga

1.11

Jedinstvo Ub

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stepojevac Vaga ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Stepojevac Vaga or draw

66%

Stepojevac Vaga or Jedinstvo Ub

71%

Draw or Jedinstvo Ub

63%

Winning margin

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+

15%

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals

68%

Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals

32%

Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals

11%

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

66%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

29%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)

52%

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stepojevac Vaga at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stepojevac Vaga attack 0.95 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.05 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stepojevac Vaga scores more

37%

level

29%

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

34%

Stepojevac Vaga at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stepojevac Vaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

E. Hoard

33'

Z. Arsic

42'

M. Kolarevic

46'

T. Todorovic← A. Vuletic

46'

K. Boskovic← M. Terzic

60'

63'

63'

63'

68'

69'

M. Jovic← M. Mijatovic

74'

L. Mladenovic← D. Popovic

74'

R. Denzell← I. Abass

76'

A. Cvetkovic← R. Wypart

76'

I. Vucicevic← V. Milosavljev

81'

A. Cvetkovic

81'

U. Cuk← M. Mitrovic

81'

M. Delimedjac← M. Kolarevic

82'

B. Vukmirovic

90+6'

M. Jovic

90+1'

U. Vukasinovic← V. Maksimovic

Stepojevac

Jedinstvo

33

Pavlicic

3

▼

Kolarevic

7

▼

Abass

10

Kijevcani

18

▼

Popovic

20

⚽

Hoard

22

Paic

25

Savkovic

36

▼

Terzic

70

▼

93

1

2

3

9

▼

Mijatovic

10

⚽

Arsic

14

▼

Maksimovi

16

▼

Wypart

17

▼

Vuletic

20

▼

Milosavlj

22

Krstovic

29

Popovic

46'▲T. Todorovic←▼A. Vuletic

69'▲M. Jovic←▼M. Mijatovic

76'▲A. Cvetkovic←▼R. Wypart

76'▲I. Vucicevic←▼V. Milosavljev

90+1'▲U. Vukasinovic←▼V. Maksimovic

Stepojevac Vaga substitutes

12Terzic4Radic5Cvetkovic6Vukasinovic8Pavlovic11Todorovic15Vucicevic23Jovic

Manager: U. Matić

46'▲K. Boskovic←▼M. Terzic

74'▲L. Mladenovic←▼D. Popovic

74'▲R. Denzell←▼I. Abass

81'▲U. Cuk←▼M. Mitrovic

81'▲M. Delimedjac←▼M. Kolarevic

Jedinstvo Ub substitutes

89Premovic2Cuk5Delimedjac9Paolucci14Kesikj17Okain30Mladenovic31Denzell39Miljkovic44Boskovic45Lazic