Stepojevac Vaga 1–0 BASK: Result & Stats

Stepojevac Vaga

FT

1 – 0

BASK

4/21/2023

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 23Stadion FK IMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Stepojevac Vaga44%

×Draw28%

BASK28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stepojevac VagaExpected goals in this matchBASK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.98

Stepojevac Vaga

1.30

BASK

0.98

Stepojevac Vaga creates 33% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 90 away

1.47

creates per match

0.92

1.03

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Stepojevac Vaga

1.47

BASK

0.92

allows per match

Stepojevac Vaga

1.03

BASK

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

BASK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stepojevac Vaga ↓

BASK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Stepojevac Vaga or draw

72%

Stepojevac Vaga or BASK

72%

Draw or BASK

56%

Winning margin

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+

20%

BASK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals

73%

Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals

37%

Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals

14%

BASK 1+ goals

62%

BASK 2+ goals

26%

BASK 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)

61%

BASK (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stepojevac Vaga at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 86 matches

BASK away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.47 + BASK defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.30

BASK attack 0.92 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stepojevac Vaga scores more

44%

level

28%

BASK scores more

28%

Stepojevac Vaga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stepojevac Vaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff