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Stenungsund vs Säffle SK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Stenungsund
Stenungsund
FT
4 – 1
Säffle SK
Säffle SK
8/13/2023Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 16Bästkustställningar Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Stenungsund57%
×Draw22%
Säffle SK21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stenungsund
2.00
Säffle SK
1.14

Stenungsund creates 75% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 26 away

creates per match

Stenungsund
1.77
Säffle SK
0.81

allows per match

Stenungsund
1.46
Säffle SK
2.23

finishing

Stenungsund+0.00on par
Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenungsund ↓

Säffle SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stenungsund or draw
79%
Stenungsund or Säffle SK
78%
Draw or Säffle SK
43%

Winning margin

Stenungsund wins by 2+
34%
Säffle SK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stenungsund 1+ goals
86%
Stenungsund 2+ goals
59%
Stenungsund 3+ goals
32%
Säffle SK 1+ goals
68%
Säffle SK 2+ goals
32%
Säffle SK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stenungsund (draw refunded)
73%
Säffle SK (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenungsund at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.46 · 79 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenungsund attack 1.77 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.00

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + Stenungsund defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Stenungsund scores more
57%
level
22%
Säffle SK scores more
21%

Stenungsund at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Stenungsund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stenungsund vs Säffle SK

Stenungsund beat Säffle SK 4-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Bästkustställningar Arena in Stenungsund.