Stenungsund 0–3 IF Elfsborg: Result & Stats

Stenungsund

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

IF Elfsborg

9/30/2020

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundWosabplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stenungsund12%

×Draw20%

IF Elfsborg68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StenungsundExpected goals in this matchIF Elfsborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

2.01

Stenungsund

0.69

IF Elfsborg

2.01

IF Elfsborg creates 191% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

0.67

creates per match

2.36

1.67

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Stenungsund

0.67

IF Elfsborg

2.36

allows per match

Stenungsund

1.67

IF Elfsborg

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stenungsund+0.00on par

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenungsund ↓

IF Elfsborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–114%

0–214%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stenungsund or draw

32%

Stenungsund or IF Elfsborg

80%

Draw or IF Elfsborg

88%

Winning margin

Stenungsund wins by 2+

3%

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Stenungsund 1+ goals

50%

Stenungsund 2+ goals

15%

Stenungsund 3+ goals

3%

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals

87%

IF Elfsborg 2+ goals

59%

IF Elfsborg 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Stenungsund (draw refunded)

15%

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenungsund at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenungsund attack 0.67 + IF Elfsborg defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

IF Elfsborg attack 2.36 + Stenungsund defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Stenungsund scores more

12%

level

20%

IF Elfsborg scores more

68%

IF Elfsborg at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff