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Stenungsund vs Angered BK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Stenungsund
Stenungsund
FT
2 – 0
Angered BK
Angered BK
8/13/2021Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 20Bästkustställningar Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Stenungsund43%
×Draw22%
Angered BK35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stenungsund
1.91
Angered BK
1.71

Stenungsund creates 12% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 27 away

creates per match

Stenungsund
1.77
Angered BK
1.96

allows per match

Stenungsund
1.46
Angered BK
2.04

finishing

Stenungsund+0.00on par
Angered BK+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenungsund ↓

Angered BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Stenungsund or draw
65%
Stenungsund or Angered BK
78%
Draw or Angered BK
57%

Winning margin

Stenungsund wins by 2+
23%
Angered BK wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stenungsund 1+ goals
85%
Stenungsund 2+ goals
57%
Stenungsund 3+ goals
30%
Angered BK 1+ goals
82%
Angered BK 2+ goals
51%
Angered BK 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Stenungsund (draw refunded)
55%
Angered BK (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenungsund at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.46 · 79 matches

Angered BK away — creates 1.96, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenungsund attack 1.77 + Angered BK defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.91

Angered BK attack 1.96 + Stenungsund defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stenungsund scores more
43%
level
22%
Angered BK scores more
35%

Stenungsund at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stenungsund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stenungsund vs Angered BK

Stenungsund beat Angered BK 2-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at Bästkustställningar Arena in Stenungsund.