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Stenhousemuir vs Spartans — League Two 2018

Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Spartans
Spartans
11/11/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 12Ochilview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Stenhousemuir32%
×Draw25%
Spartans43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stenhousemuir
1.29
Spartans
1.52

Spartans creates 18% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 55 away

creates per match

Stenhousemuir
1.31
Spartans
1.65

allows per match

Stenhousemuir
1.39
Spartans
1.27

finishing

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par
Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenhousemuir ↓

Spartans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stenhousemuir or draw
57%
Stenhousemuir or Spartans
75%
Draw or Spartans
68%

Winning margin

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
14%
Spartans wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
72%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
37%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
14%
Spartans 1+ goals
78%
Spartans 2+ goals
45%
Spartans 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
43%
Spartans (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenhousemuir at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

Spartans away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenhousemuir attack 1.31 + Spartans defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Spartans attack 1.65 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stenhousemuir scores more
32%
level
25%
Spartans scores more
43%

Spartans at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stenhousemuir vs Spartans

Stenhousemuir beat Spartans 3-2 in League Two on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Ochilview Park in Stenhousemuir.