Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stenhousemuir vs Queen of the South — League #183 2026

Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Queen of the South
Queen of the South
1/3/2026League #183League #183 · Round 20Ochilview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stenhousemuir19%
×Draw22%
Queen of the South59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stenhousemuir
0.99
Queen of the South
1.92

Queen of the South creates 94% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 29 away

creates per match

Stenhousemuir
0.50
Queen of the South
1.59

allows per match

Stenhousemuir
2.25
Queen of the South
1.48

finishing

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par
Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenhousemuir ↓

Queen of the South →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stenhousemuir or draw
41%
Stenhousemuir or Queen of the South
78%
Draw or Queen of the South
81%

Winning margin

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
7%
Queen of the South wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
63%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
26%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
8%
Queen of the South 1+ goals
85%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
57%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
24%
Queen of the South (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenhousemuir at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenhousemuir attack 0.50 + Queen of the South defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 0.99

Queen of the South attack 1.59 + Stenhousemuir defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Stenhousemuir scores more
19%
level
22%
Queen of the South scores more
59%

Queen of the South at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #183: Stenhousemuir 2–0 Queen of the South

Stenhousemuir beat Queen of the South 2-0 in League #183 on January 3, 2026.

The match was played at Ochilview Park in Stenhousemuir.