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Stenhousemuir vs Preston Athletic — FA Cup 2019

Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
FT
4 – 1
Preston Athletic
Preston Athletic
12/26/2020FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundOchilview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stenhousemuir47%
×Draw21%
Preston Athletic32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stenhousemuir
2.05
Preston Athletic
1.67

Stenhousemuir creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Stenhousemuir
2.11
Preston Athletic
1.67

allows per match

Stenhousemuir
1.67
Preston Athletic
2.00

finishing

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par
Preston Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenhousemuir ↓

Preston Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Stenhousemuir or draw
68%
Stenhousemuir or Preston Athletic
79%
Draw or Preston Athletic
53%

Winning margin

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
27%
Preston Athletic wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
87%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
61%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
33%
Preston Athletic 1+ goals
81%
Preston Athletic 2+ goals
50%
Preston Athletic 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
59%
Preston Athletic (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenhousemuir at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Preston Athletic away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenhousemuir attack 2.11 + Preston Athletic defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Preston Athletic attack 1.67 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stenhousemuir scores more
47%
level
21%
Preston Athletic scores more
32%

Stenhousemuir at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stenhousemuir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stenhousemuir vs Preston Athletic

Stenhousemuir beat Preston Athletic 4-1 in FA Cup on December 26, 2020.

The match was played at Ochilview Park in Stenhousemuir.