Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stenhousemuir vs Buckie Thistle — League Cup 2018

Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Buckie Thistle
Buckie Thistle
7/13/2024League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Ochilview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stenhousemuir65%
×Draw18%
Buckie Thistle17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stenhousemuir
2.55
Buckie Thistle
1.23

Stenhousemuir creates 107% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

creates per match

Stenhousemuir
1.35
Buckie Thistle
1.00

allows per match

Stenhousemuir
1.47
Buckie Thistle
3.75

finishing

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par
Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenhousemuir ↓

Buckie Thistle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Stenhousemuir or draw
83%
Stenhousemuir or Buckie Thistle
82%
Draw or Buckie Thistle
35%

Winning margin

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
44%
Buckie Thistle wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
92%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
72%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
46%
Buckie Thistle 1+ goals
71%
Buckie Thistle 2+ goals
35%
Buckie Thistle 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
80%
Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenhousemuir at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Buckie Thistle away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenhousemuir attack 1.35 + Buckie Thistle defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.55

Buckie Thistle attack 1.00 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Stenhousemuir scores more
65%
level
18%
Buckie Thistle scores more
17%

Stenhousemuir at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Stenhousemuir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Stenhousemuir 4–0 Buckie Thistle

Stenhousemuir beat Buckie Thistle 4-0 in League Cup on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Ochilview Park in Stenhousemuir.