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Stenhousemuir vs Alloa Athletic — League Cup 2018

Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Alloa Athletic
Alloa Athletic
7/25/2023League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 6Ochilview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stenhousemuir37%
×Draw24%
Alloa Athletic39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stenhousemuir
1.54
Alloa Athletic
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

creates per match

Stenhousemuir
1.35
Alloa Athletic
1.73

allows per match

Stenhousemuir
1.47
Alloa Athletic
1.73

finishing

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par
Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenhousemuir ↓

Alloa Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stenhousemuir or draw
61%
Stenhousemuir or Alloa Athletic
76%
Draw or Alloa Athletic
63%

Winning margin

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
18%
Alloa Athletic wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
79%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
45%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
20%
Alloa Athletic 1+ goals
80%
Alloa Athletic 2+ goals
47%
Alloa Athletic 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
48%
Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenhousemuir at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenhousemuir attack 1.35 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Alloa Athletic attack 1.73 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stenhousemuir scores more
37%
level
24%
Alloa Athletic scores more
39%

Alloa Athletic at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alloa Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stenhousemuir vs Alloa Athletic

Alloa Athletic beat Stenhousemuir 3-1 in League Cup on July 25, 2023.

The match was played at Ochilview Park in Stenhousemuir.