Stenhousemuir 4–1 Albion Rovers: Result & Stats

Stenhousemuir

FT

4 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Albion Rovers

4/16/2022

League Two · Round 34Ochilview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Stenhousemuir44%

×Draw25%

Albion Rovers31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StenhousemuirExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.28

Stenhousemuir

1.56

Albion Rovers

1.28

Stenhousemuir creates 22% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 80 away

1.31

creates per match

1.18

1.39

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Stenhousemuir

1.31

Albion Rovers

1.18

allows per match

Stenhousemuir

1.39

Albion Rovers

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenhousemuir ↓

Albion Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stenhousemuir or draw

69%

Stenhousemuir or Albion Rovers

75%

Draw or Albion Rovers

56%

Winning margin

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+

22%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals

79%

Stenhousemuir 2+ goals

46%

Stenhousemuir 3+ goals

21%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

72%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

37%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)

58%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenhousemuir at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.80 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenhousemuir attack 1.31 + Albion Rovers defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Albion Rovers attack 1.18 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stenhousemuir scores more

44%

level

25%

Albion Rovers scores more

31%

Stenhousemuir at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stenhousemuir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff