Stenhousemuir 4–0 Albion Rovers: Result & Stats

Stenhousemuir

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Albion Rovers

S. Dickson 90+1'

S. Ross 85'

C. Duthie 56'

M. Neill 54'

7/17/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 2Ochilview Park (Stenhousemuir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Stenhousemuir60%

×Draw21%

Albion Rovers19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StenhousemuirExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.07

Stenhousemuir

2.06

Albion Rovers

1.07

Stenhousemuir creates 93% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

1.35

creates per match

0.67

1.47

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Stenhousemuir

1.35

Albion Rovers

0.67

allows per match

Stenhousemuir

1.47

Albion Rovers

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenhousemuir ↓

Albion Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Stenhousemuir or draw

81%

Stenhousemuir or Albion Rovers

79%

Draw or Albion Rovers

40%

Winning margin

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+

37%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals

87%

Stenhousemuir 2+ goals

61%

Stenhousemuir 3+ goals

34%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

66%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

29%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)

76%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenhousemuir at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenhousemuir attack 1.35 + Albion Rovers defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.06

Albion Rovers attack 0.67 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Stenhousemuir scores more

60%

level

21%

Albion Rovers scores more

19%

Stenhousemuir at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Stenhousemuir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

54'

56'

59'

73'

S. Dickson← C. Duthie

73'

J. Cunningham← R. Watters

80'

K. Johnson← García Tena

85'

S. Ross↳ A. Cook

86'

R. Sinclair← T. Halleran

90+1'

S. Dickson↳ A. Cook

Stenhousemuir

Albion

1

Hallford

5

Murdoch

3

▼

2

10

4

8

7

▼

McLear

6

McGeough

9

▼

11

1

2

5

▼

Tena

4

⚽

Neill

3

Donaldson

7

Gibbons

10

⚽A

▼

Duthie

14

⚽

Ross

15

▼

Halleran

9

McGuigan

11

A

Cook

Manager: B. Ferguson

73'▲S. Dickson←▼C. Duthie

80'▲K. Johnson←▼García Tena

86'▲R. Sinclair←▼T. Halleran

Stenhousemuir substitutes

16Dickson18Johnson12Sinclair8Paterson19McMenamin17McMinn

Manager: J. Brogan

46'▲J. Watson←▼L. Wilson

59'▲M. Greene←▼L. McLear

73'▲J. Cunningham←▼R. Watters

Albion Rovers substitutes

12Watson18Greene14Cunningham16McCann17Potts15Gallagher

Match Recap: Stenhousemuir vs Albion Rovers

Stenhousemuir beat Albion Rovers 4-0 in League Cup on July 17, 2018.

Goals: M. Neill (54'), C. Duthie (56'), S. Ross (85'), S. Dickson (90+1').

The match was played at Ochilview Park (Stenhousemuir).

Stenhousemuir vs Albion Rovers — League Cup 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stenhousemuir vs Albion Rovers